June 6, 2023 (Silver Spring, MD) – The organic soybean market has experienced significant volatility, resulting in declining prices and implications for organic crop producers. Mercaris invites you to explore organic commodity and livestock data in our recently released Spring 2023 Mercaris Commodity Outlook.
U.S. organic soybean production and carryover stocks reached a record high of 14.1 million bu. at the start of 2022/23, up 41% from the previous year. Coupled with strong imports, this oversupply has led to a steady decrease in organic soybean prices, falling from $35.00 to $22.93/bu. between September 2022 and April 2023.
“The price decline is expected to impact the industry, with Mercaris forecasting an 18% decrease in harvested organic soybean acreage for 2023. This reduction may stabilize prices, but poses risks for organic corn and wheat,” says Mercaris Vice President of Economics Ryan Koory. “Mercaris predicts a 10% increase in U.S. organic corn production, potentially leading to bearish prices in the 2023/24 marketing year.” However, the decline in organic soybean acreage could create opportunities for organic spring wheat cultivation, with a projected 3% increase in total U.S. organic spring wheat acreage. Severe drought conditions may result in a 2% decline in U.S. organic wheat acreage, but improved moisture conditions could boost organic wheat yields by 7% and increase total production by 6%.
“Feed demand is also affected, with declining organic dairy and poultry inventories contributing to a 2% decrease in total feed demand for 2022/23,” says Koory. “Despite this, Mercaris expects a 2% growth in organic soybean meal feed demand due to lower costs and reduced supplies of other meal options.”
Looking ahead to the 2023/24 marketing year, Mercaris anticipates a slight 1% increase in organic feed demand, potentially driving organic soybean prices upward. However, a large organic corn harvest may result in increased carryover stocks despite reduced imports.
The information above is summarized from the Spring 2023 Mercaris Commodity Outlook. To find more details and information on other organic and non-GMO markets, visit www.mercaris.com.
Mercaris has helped its customers capitalize on the growing demand for organic and non-GMO agriculture by providing market intelligence and analysis exclusively for the identity-preserved agriculture industry. Mercaris hosts the largest organic and non-GMO grain and oilseed market survey across the U.S. as well as Canada and recently launched an organic dairy initiative. The company also maintains a trading platform for organic and non-GMO commodities. With a dynamic combination of data, insights and technology, our customers can access solutions for every challenge. For more information visit: www.mercaris.com.