Against the backdrop of challenging spring weather, Mercaris’ outlook for U.S. organic corn and soybeans over the 2019/20 marketing year (MY) is for a reduction in U.S. production, alongside an increased reliance on imports as the market attempts to keep pace with growing organic livestock feed demand.

Mercaris expects 2019/20 organic corn production will decline 12% year over year, while organic soybean production is expected to decline 14% year over year. Wheat production across the U.S. Corn Belt is estimated to have declined 19% year over year. However, outside of the Corn Belt, total organic wheat production is increasing 7% year over year.

With regard to demand, growth in organic livestock production slowed over 2018/19 and will likely add less demand pressure over 2019/20. Overall, Mercaris looks for organic livestock feed demand to grow by just 1% over 2019/20, down from 4% growth in the prior marketing year.

Key Analysis Areas

  • Section 1: Executive Summary
    • Key Findings
  • Section 2: Organic Corn
    • Organic Corn Outlook
    • Organic Corn Suppoorting Tables
  • Section 3: Organic Soybeans
    • Organic Soybeans Outlook
    • Organic Soybeans Suppoorting Tables
  • Section 4: Organic Wheat
    • Organic Wheat Outlook
    • Organic Wheat Suppoorting Tables
  • Section 5: Organic Livestock and Feed Demand

Table of Graphs

Graph 2.1: Mercaris and USDA NASS U.S. Organic Corn Production and Yields
Graph 2.2: Mercaris and USDA NASS U.S. Organic Corn Silage Production and Yields
Graph 2.3: U.S. Marketing Year Organic Whole and Cracked Corn Imports
Graph 2.4: Mercaris U.S. Organic Corn Use by Category
Graph 2.5: Mercaris Organic Feed-Grade Corn Price Premium
Graph 2.6: Mercaris Quarterly North American Organic Food and Feed-Grade Corn Prices
Graph 3.1: Mercaris and USDA NASS U.S. Organic Soybean Production and Yields
Graph 3.2: U.S. Marketing Year Organic Soybean Imports
Graph 3.3: U.S. Organic Soybean Meal Imports by Origin
Graph 3.4: Mercaris U.S. Organic Soybean Use by Category
Graph 3.5: Mercaris Organic Feed-Grade Soybean Price Premium
Graph 3.6: Mercaris Quarterly North American Organic Food- and Feed-Grade Soybean Prices
Graph 4.1: Mercaris and USDA NASS U.S. Organic Winter Wheat Production and Yields
Graph 4.2: Mercaris and USDA NASS U.S. Organic Durum Wheat Production and Yields
Graph 4.3: Mercaris and USDA NASS U.S. Organic Other Spring Wheat Production and Yields
Graph 4.4: Mercaris U.S. Organic Wheat Use by Category
Graph 4.5: Mercaris Organic Feed-Grade Wheat and Corn Prices
Graph 4.6: Mercaris Quarterly North American Organic Food and Feed-Grade Wheat Prices

Table of Tables

Table 2.1: U.S. Organic Corn Market Supply and Utilization
Table 2.2: Mercaris U.S. Organic Corn Acres, Yield, and Production by State
Table 2.3: Mercaris U.S. Organic Corn Silage Acres, Yield, and Production by State
Table 2.4: U.S. Marketing Year Organic Whole and Cracked Corn Imports by Origin
Table 2.5: Mercaris Quarterly North American Organic Food- and Feed-Grade Corn Prices
Table 3.1: U.S. Organic Soybean Market Supply and Utilization
Table 3.2: Mercaris U.S. Organic Soybeans Acres, Yield, and Production by State
Table 3.3: U.S. Marketing Year Organic Soybean and Soybean Meal Imports by Origin
Table 3.4: Mercaris Quarterly North American Organic Food- and Feed-Grade Soybean Prices
Table 4.1: U.S. Organic Wheat Market Supply and Utilization
Table 4.2: Mercaris U.S. Organic Winter Wheat Acres, Yield, and Production by State
Table 4.3: Mercaris U.S. Organic Durum Wheat Acres, Yield, and Production by State
Table 4.4: Mercaris U.S. Organic Other Spring Wheat Acres, Yield, and Production by State
Table 4.5: Mercaris Quarterly North American Organic Food- and Feed-Grade Wheat Prices
Table 5.1: Mercaris Estimated U.S. Organic Livestock Inventories
Table 5.2: Mercaris Estimated U.S. Organic GCAU and Grain Feed Demand
Table 5.3: Mercaris Estimated U.S. Organic HPAU and Meal Feed Demand