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Field crops comprise the largest share of U.S. organic cropland, and the decline in harvested acreage between 2008 and 2011 stems primarily from losses in field crop acreage. We estimate the 2011 decline in total field crop acreage at around 50,000 acres, or close to 4 percent, with the bulk of the acreage loss confined to wheat. It is unclear from the data how much durum wheat acreage was lost between the two surveys, but combined losses of organic spring and organic winter wheat acreage total 41,000 acres. Nonetheless, winter wheat remains the second largest organic crop by acreage after hay.

Organic corn acreage remained relatively stable between 2008 and 2011, increasing 0.6 percent over the period when we combine acreage data for grain and silage. Whereas acres devoted to corn for grain decreased 6 percent in 2011, an increase in corn silage more than offset the decline. Harvested acreage also increased slightly for organic hay, while acreage for organic soybeans fell 2 percent. (See chart.)

Harvested Acres for Selected Organic Field Crops

	Harvested acres		Change in harvested acres
	2008	2011	Acres	Percent
Hay (including alfalfa)	401,672	403,481	+1,809	+0.5%
Winter wheat	202,848	178,541	-24,307	-12.0%
All corn	167,906	168,900	+994	+0.6%
Corn for grain	143,074	134,877	-8,197	-5.7%
Corn for silage	24,832	34,023	+9,191	+37.0%
Haylage	117,942	109,331	-8,611	-7.3%
Soybeans	98,113	96,080	-2,033	-2.1%
Spring wheat	93,082	76,372	-16,710	-18.0%
Barley	47,205	41,645	-5,560	-11.8%
Oats	41,016	34,700	-6,316	-15.4%

Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

Though harvested acreage increased slightly for hay and corn, the general direction of organic field crop acreage appears to be one of decline. Factors behind this stagnant or downward trend likely involve price. Prices for organic grains published by the Agricultural Marketing Service weakened in 2009 and 2010, which would have reduced producer compensation relative to the greater effort and risk involved with organic production. In addition, prices for conventional field crops began to strengthen in 2010, which likely reduced the attractiveness of organic production compared to conventional methods.

The loss of organic acreage was offset by small gains in production.  Production of organic feed grains between 2008 and 2011 was generally positive due to yield gains over the period. Combined production of spring and winter wheat increased 10 percent due mainly to a 9 bushel per acre yield gain for winter wheat in 2011. Hay production increased 8 percent from 2008, while soybean production increased 12 percent. Production of corn for grain fell 9 percent due to both shrinking acreage and yield, while oat and barley production also saw decreases. 

Organic Livestock: Eggs and Dairy Outpacing Meat

Inventories of organic livestock reveal mixed growth between 2008 and 2011, but they tell a story about where organic livestock production may be headed, at least in the short term. Livestock products such as eggs and dairy appear to have momentum, while organic meat production (with the exception of turkey) appears to be shrinking. 

The trend is clearest in chicken inventories, where a 34 percent inventory loss for broiler chickens was offset by a 51 percent increase in layers. Overall chicken inventories increased 1 percent from 2008 due to the gains for layer chickens.

Though NASS did not collect data on organic meat sales, total sales of broiler chickens fell 35 percent between 2008 and 2011, while sales value of broilers fell by an even larger 70 percent. By contrast, the sales volume of organic eggs rose 67 percent between 2008 and 2011, while the sales value increased by 78 percent.

Peak dairy cow inventories decreased 3 percent from 2008, but the larger decrease was for beef cattle inventories, which fell 21 percent. Nonetheless, the declines in these two categories were offset by inventory growth for other cattle and calves, so overall organic cattle inventories rose 4 percent from 2008.

Though dairy cow inventories declined 3 percent between 2008 and 2011, volume of organic milk sold increased by 5 percent over the period, suggesting greater yield per cow.  Sales value of organic milk increased by a lesser 2 percent rate, likely due to the gain in milk yields.  By contrast, sales volume of beef cows dropped 7 percent, while the value of beef cattle sold increased 39 percent, consistent with reduced supply.

Inventories of other organic quadrupeds such as hogs and pigs, sheep and lambs, and goats and kids all declined over the period, as did sales volume for these categories. However, sales value increased by 19 percent for hogs and pigs and 57 percent for goats and kids.

Finally, organic turkey inventories soared 118 percent from 2008, while volume sales of organic turkeys more than doubled and sales value nearly tripled.

Conclusions

With healthy U.S. consumer demand for organics, the question of whether and how organic production will meet this demand is important. One possible response is to increase imports of organic crops, though buyers likely prefer domestically-sourced inputs.  Another is to offer higher prices to domestic producers and/or better communicate price information to producers, as lack of transparent prices may unnecessarily discourage producers from converting to or staying with organic production methods.

Our intent at Mercaris is to facilitate understanding of organic and non-GMO market conditions throughout the sector via original price data collection and economic analysis of existing data. In addition to regular, regionally-relevant price information, the sector needs more acreage and production data. The next organic production survey conducted by NASS is tentatively scheduled to cover the 2015 crop year and be released in 2016 (assuming funding is available). This four-year gap between surveys would be unthinkable to participants in conventional agriculture.

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) may fill in some of the details. ERS also publishes data on organic acreage and livestock inventories on a periodic basis, but for multiple crop years. ERS does not estimate production or sales, and its methodology differs from NASS in that it collects acreage and inventory data via a census of organic certifiers rather than a survey of producers. Its approach may result in more comprehensive acreage data due to reduced likelihood of non-response and the presence of data for intervening years.

ERS expects to release organic acreage data on the 2010 and 2011 crop years sometime in the first quarter of 2013 (2009 data will not be available due to budget constraints). We expect to fully analyze this data when it becomes available and look forward to sharing with you any new insights it provides.

Tiffany Arthur
Director of Agricultural Research and Product Development
Mercaris
 

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